How Will the Future Be?

1 The future will not fit the containers of the past From organizational structure to how markets are organized the existing ways of doing business have been optimized on what has come before The challenge for most of us is to realize that the future refuses to be contained in the containers of the past whether it be media money markets or mindsets2 The future will come from the slime and not the heavens Future prognosticating is often aligned with crystal ball gazing scenario planning and bluesky thinking We look ahead and above We watch market leaders and todays visionaries and time after time we are surprised that the future did not come from where we were looking but from those we looked down upon or were outside the quotvelvet ropequot or who never appeared on our radar3 The future while challenging for some is likely to be much better for most Someone said that they were not afraid of the future but they were scared out of their minds by the headlines What enrages powers the algorithms that are built on what engages While there are real challenges and some segments of society and certain regions fail and slip back history indicates that for humanity the future can be looked at with optimismSix Forces Driving the FutureEverywhere in the world six unstoppable intertwined forces are shifting the very landscape that business and society have been built onMultipolar globalization Globalization is here to stay but it will be no longer a western centric but a multipolar form of globalization increasingly with an Asian flavor as China and India continue to riseThe three divides Every country is dealing with three internal divides of age ethnicity and geography In most advanced economies and China populations are both rapidly aging and declining creating new stresses and opportunities The United States and Europe are dealing with multiethnic populations among younger generations that have different values than older generations and every country is seeing a schism between their urban and rural populations in economic outlook voting patterns and even vaccination uptakeThe Third Connected Age of technology Already society has been greatly impacted by the First Connected Age where we connected to discover search and connected to transact ecommerce and the Second Connected Age where we connected to each other social all the time mobile We have now entered the Third Connected Age where we will enjoy four new types of connections as data connects to data and writes software AI and all our devices are connected to supercomputers cloud with much faster connections 5G and new interfaces to connect voiceARVR The age we are going to enter will be magical in what will become available to us as individuals AI capability is supposedly doubling every six months vs the old Mooreamp8217s law of 18 months but challenging on a society level anything a machine can do it will do and more and more things will be done by machines And with more powerful algorithms which will make todayamp8217s sinister newsfeed look childish fueled with the power of facial recognition will we be entering a utopian or dystopian society or more likely a combinationA rewiring of health education and financial industries In many countries these areas account for over a third of their GDP and are filled with legacy structures and rules which are now being buffeted by a new generation of competitors new enabling technologies and a shift in mindsets among regulators and consumers Even established firms are filled with leaders who understand the challenges and opportunities and the urgency to change and so one will see significant shifts in all these areasClimate change Denying climate change is like denying gravity It does not matter what we quotthinkquot for just like if we reject gravity it will not prevent us from becoming a symphony of broken bones and goo if we step out of a multistoried building to broadcast our quotbeliefsquot Businesses and their boardsCEOs take a leadership role on all forms of sustainability They do this not only because it is the right thing to do but because without it no quotPurpose Mantraquot rings true and as importantly their customers and their employees demand it Big investment firms like Black Rock monitor itSecond and third order effects of vaccine drives Over the next two years different regions of the world will be vaccinated at different levels One already sees the impact of differing rates of vaccines determining the outlook for society in the US where the vaccinated rates vary from 15 to 75 depending on the region Now imagine Africa with only 1 and many Asian and Latin America countries in the single digits From travel to mutations the second and third order effects of vaccination drives will impact our near term and possible longterm futureThe Great Reinvention the impact of COVID19 as an ongoing forceCOVID19 has changed the contours of the future in ways that many of us may not be fully comprehending After nearly 18 months of fragility resilience and in some countries resurrection we are changed as businesses as society and individuals And one would be short sighted in thinking that the key driver of COVID19 is limited to an acceleration of digital channels and technologiesIt is far deeperThere will be no new normal or going back but rather a new strange as we think anew for what is ahead as everyone rethinks their lives their careers their leaders and reevaluates what is important The signs are everywhere including how companies are struggling to attract talent or get them back to the office It is seen with a Microsoft study that indicates that 40 percent of workers in the US are thinking of switching jobsThe Transformed Talent TerrainFive forces ricocheting off and reenforcing each other are sculpting a new terrain1 Demographics Most countries outside of Africa and the Middle East are aging as people live longer and there is less immigration and fewer children being born This means more people are going to stay in the workforce longer In addition those aged under 34 have grown up in a very different economy less growth and more shocks technological digital natives and social set up more liberal and more ethnically diverse and have very different mindsets and expectations than those over 50 that might be currently leading companies and making up most of board leadership2 Unbundled workplace Postvaccine the office is not dead but it will play a lesser role for a variety of reasons from talent preference to work part of the time from home or near their homes a third place that is not home or the old HQ office a need for companies to either manage costs lower real estate costs or be more aggressive in filling open roles and finding scarce expertise allowing talent to live wherever they want COVID19 has made remote work a reality and very few companies will be able to compete for talent without being open to it3 Technology While broadband technology cloudbased computing and communication software like Zoom and Slack have enabled remote work and collaboration we are on the cusp a quantum jump of enabling technology including integrated AI for improved competency voice and AR for leaps in communication and 5G for faster and more resilient connections4 Government and policy Most governments are tilting resources to labor and collective infrastructure rather than capital and private enterprise recognizing that after years of disinvestment in society and poor market driven outcomes in some areas such as climate change the pendulum may have swung too far It is also clear that company leadership is now being asked to take stands and work with or influence government5 Culture After a long while diverse voices and points of view are now both being heard and paid attention to all over the world as for too long too many talented people39s potential was never unleashed or recognized as well as many company cultures needed to be rethought to ensure greater fairness equality and opportunityThe Future of Work1 The nature of work We are all going to be gig workers The only difference is that the lucky ones will have longer higher paying gigs with better benefits like a consultant at McKinsey or members of a movietelevision crew who come together for as long as the project takes and then disband and recombine in new ways on the next project Many others will be working for Uber Door Dash or on contract for tech and other companies Google has many more contract workers than full time employees already and the divergence is growing This change will be driven by employees wanting flexibility and companies wanting to make costs variable versus fixed enabling technologies that allow for distributed and fractional work as well as the shrinking halflife of skills that place a premium on plugandplay work forces2 How work is done Almost all work will be instrumented and technologically augmented Today everything is measured including page views and interactions with each piece written by an online writer time spent answering a telemarketing call or billable time spent by doctors in seeing patients or lawyers in seeing clients If there is an emission of data it will be used to stack compare enhance iterate and improve3 Where work is done The quotofficequot of 2019 will become like the typewriter did three decades ago in the age of computers and Microsoft Office A collectible and a romantic notion of a time past Or movie theater chains believing that people will flock back to their locations to see movies at the same frequency as before despite every blockbuster being available at home the same day as part of a subscription serviceRuptures in the MediascapeEvery decade or so there are significant shifts in the media landscape In the early 3980s we saw the birth of cable the 3990s the beginning of the World Wide Web less than a generation ago we witnessed the explosion in social media and the criticality of mobile phones as revolutionary creation consumption and distribution platformsinstrumentsWe are now amid what may be the most significant rupture in the mediascape whose implications on business and society are only beginning to be sensed A rupture that is not just driven by advances in technology but a very deep wrinkle in the very fabric of every element of how media messaging content and information are created designed distributed consumed shared and trustedMedia is becoming mongrelized as the difference between offline and online media above the line and below the line communication and audiovideoword blur Even more importantly the differences between social mobile search and ecommerce make very little sense and yet so many organizations are set up this way A shoppable mobile video with chat support belongs to which part of a marketer39s organizationIn addition to mongrel media another key change is determining who is a creator and what is a media company In the United States nearly 50 million people define themselves as creators Kylie Jenneramp8217s Instagram gets more traffic than the Super Bowl and Oscars combinedAdd to this the rise of voice Amazon Echo Google Home podcasting Clubhouse the emergence of Augmented Reality and Virtual Reality and the renaissance of outofhome as an electronic wired interactive media and one can sense the entire media landscape is ready to ruptureHere are links to posts on the future Each one is a sixminute read covering each area touched on above in greater detailThe Future httpsrishadsubstackcompthefutureThe River of Change httpsrishadsubstackcompariverofchangeThe Great ReInvention COVID impact httpsrishadsubstackcompthegreatreinventionThe Transformed Talent Terrain httpsrishadsubstackcompthetransformedtalentterrainThe Future of Work httpsrishadsubstackcompthefutureofworkRuptures in the Mediascape httpsrishadsubstackcomprupturesinthemediascapeClick the social buttons to share this content with your friends and colleaguesThe opinions and points of view expressed in this content are exclusively the views of the author andor subjects and do not necessarily represent the views of MediaVillagecomMyersBizNet Inc management or associated writers

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How Will the Future Be?

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Rishad Tobaccowala

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