Early Indicators of Rebound and Other Recent Signals

quotBuyers are actively pushing back and looking at options outside of the mainstream more national unwired local inventory more Cadent and Simulmedialike dealsquot Jack continues quotItamp8217s going to be difficult for the standalones to get CPM increases at the same level of majors but they will have CPM increasesquotThis tracks with my own observations and it39s clear that premium OTTCTV the species of digital that the major television networks and others sell which is really television content is driving growth of all of television as I39ve reported here beforeInnovid saw a 60 increase in 2020 global CTV impressions delivered while programmatic CTV went up by more than 200 YOYStandard Media Index SMI had shown a tepid start to TV39s year in JanuaryFebruaryCable TV revenue has started the year Jan Feb down only 3 versus last year while Broadcast TV is down 14 for the same periodSome of this can be attributed to less new content because production limitations due to the pandemic have caused delays on primetime programs Award shows have also been impacted with lower ratings and rescheduling until later in the yearThe Discovery channels have had strong results in recent months and started the year Jan Feb at 14 versus last yearThis now appears to be changing in a positive direction as we move into the Upfront The scarcity of premium content both in linear and especially in premium OTTCTV makes for a most meaningful Upfront moment as scarcity of premium content was always the main point of the UpfrontBecause markets are coming back at differential rates there should be strong local activity A Bill Harvey Consulting analysis of Geopath data available on request shows that the rebound of mobility is very different by markets For example commuter miles are still at only 55 of their 2019 level in San Francisco as of ISO Week 11 of each year whereas they are up to 2 over their 2019 level in Charleston West VirginiaAnother set of signals we are seeing among our Nielsen clients is a spate of recalled and reissued reports unusually numerous Also Nielsen restated the way it models together its disparate data sets passive measures and survey measures resulting in a Q3 2020 picture quite different from the one Nielsen and 605 Samba and others had reported before in which TV viewing was up as a result of the pandemic while the new numbers go the other way and are somewhat counter intuitiveAs reportedThe restated numbers still show CTV up ten minutes per day per adult YOYNo one can appreciate how challenging a task Nielsen faces moving from a relatively simple medium to a world of complexity in a relatively short time Their ambitious and wise goals for Nielsen One are praiseworthy but we should fasten our seatbelts for the adjustments in measurements that we will see for the next few yearsMarketers need to establish their own worldview based on data they can confirm with their own data rather than the ease of depending on third party measures which have become slightly unmoored This means doing some hard work analyzing and comparing all their own and licensed signals The reward for this hard work will be a far better understanding of how they ought to use specific metrics in making multimilliondollar decisionsClick the social buttons above or below to share this content with your friends and colleaguesThe opinions and points of view expressed in this content are exclusively the views of the author andor subjects and do not necessarily represent the views of MediaVillagecomMyersBizNet Inc management or associated writers

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Early Indicators of Rebound and Other Recent Signals

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Bill Harvey

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Early Indicators of Rebound and Other Recent Signals

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