Wharton Neuro Rates TV High Over Digital in “Brain Sales”

Mainak started off by positioning the study as an effort to shed light on how attention and other brain phenomena interact to cause advertising sales effects Attention had been found by FOX from numerous studies cited in the presentation to be good at predicting recall but not salesHe stated that a key goal was to find out if a scalable proxy for EEG could be found that when combined with attention could be affordably and quickly used on a daytoday basis to maximize advertising sales results And he stated up front that the goal had been achieved a scalable proxy had been found which excelled in predicting amp8220out of sampleamp8221 real world sales resultsMichael Platt introduced the notion of a scale on which one could weigh various measures39 ability to predict advertising39s sales effects He showed a graph of that scale with attention measures at the low end and EEG measures at the high end Specifically three EEG measures which are the best predictors of incremental sales effects caused by advertisingSynchrony amp8211 a measure of the degree to which all the brains in the sample resonated with one another in their reaction to a stimulus amp8211 the best predictor of salesApproachAvoidance amp8211 second best predictor of sales effectMemory Encoding amp8211 third best predictor of sales effectMichael showed how these three measures all needed a certain amount of time to fully develop amp8211 on the order of around 1520 seconds This of course is far more attention duration than is common in digital where the industry footrule is 12 seconds although YouTube and other shortform video ads have about 35 average seconds of attention some of that is to the skip buttonAs Karen NelsonField has pointed out certain media platforms come with ingrained habit patterns of use which form a very strong ceiling on the duration of attention even with breakthrough creative Feeds like Facebook and short forms like YouTube are where most advertising dollars have been going and they are the media with the least attention elasticity This does not allow the amp8220brain salesamp8221 measures enough time to formEnter television and its premium streaming daughter These contexts excel far above digital in attention duration enabling storytelling positive emotion immersion and the three varieties of amp8220brain salesamp8221In terms of the strongest sales determinant synchrony TVpremium streaming have positive synchrony while YouTube and Facebook actually drove synchrony slightly downamp160Although these results may not be surprising to some amp8211 they mirror NCS ROAS norms which show TV 86 over digital TRA results had been similar amp8211 they pose a potentially revolutionary notion to the ad investment professionals at brands and agencies who have been contracting TV spend while shoveling tens of billions more each year into digital Globally today digital is receiving over 600 billion more than four times TV spendWill this spending pattern react to Wharton science revelations quickly slowly or neverWill industry leaders continue to focus on whatever issues have been engrossing them or might this catch their attentionThe Scalable ProxyThe media planning and buying process is strongly institutionalized into computer systems and business practices that resist change and any new costs while they demand speed and ease Anything that causes agencies more work provokes fights between brands and agenciesAttention has managed to edge its way into this world because it is inexpensive and easy enoughEEG which is head and shoulders above attention in predicting sales effect takes too long and costs too much to edge its way into the media buying process at scale Hence some other proxy measure which agrees closely with EEG if it could be found would be combinable into the systems that today can already use attention dataFor several years FOX has been experimenting with the RMT content coding system and so that system came up for testing as a possible proxy for EEG RMT had already been piloted by Playgroundxyz Neuro and showed promising ability to predict EEG as presented at ARF AUDIENCExSCIENCE 2024Howard Shimmelamp8217s groundbreaking work at Turner on making RMTamp8217s system easy for media selling and buying in 20172018 led to many studies in which sales increases were linked to the RMT Resonance between the ad and the context These studies were conducted for different sets of ads and clients by NCS Simmons 605 Neustar ARF Cognition CouncilThus it was not entirely a surprise when it was found that RMT AdContext Resonance predicted the Wharton amp8220brain salesamp8221 dataIn presenting these data we first established that the performance of the ads was strongly affected by the program in which the ad appeared If there was zero context effect the average ad tested would have the same score in every environment If there was a slight context effect there would have been 8 lines overlapping one another very closely because 8 ads were tested one from each of the top 8 verticals in terms of media spend Instead these were the actual findingsamp160Because the context effect is so strong it is very important to be able to understand predict and leverage that effect which is RMTamp8217s raison damp8217etre The 265 content codes which were distilled by settop box data machine learning out of all of the psychologicallyoriented words in the English language by Emmyamp174Awardwinning Next Century Media are the basis for judging the alignmentcongruenceoverlap Resonance between a specific ad and a specific program contextThe ability of RMT Resonance to predict the brain sales metrics is shown in this chartamp160The program TV6 was the one case in this first analysis where RMT Resonance failed to predict the Approach metric here called by its other commonly used name amp8220Attractionamp8221 For the most powerful brain sales measure Synchrony there were no failures to predict More indepth correlations are now being conducted at the adbyad level providing 8 times as many data points and using full correlation rather than rank correlation Stay tunedWhen Michael Platt one of the founders of Neuroeconomics and an inventor of homeuse EEG systems saw the RMT results he wroteamp8220Given the alignment so far it looks like these may prove to be dare I say universal predictors which resonates with the ability to predict outofsample sales at high levelsamp8221When added to the plot of other sales predictive metrics RMT falls right below the EEG measures the 048 Adjusted R2 ability to predict sales comes from the ARF Cognition Council study which used six years of IRI dataamp160Watch this space more results to come in future postings herePosted at MediaVillage through the Thought Leadership selfpublishing platformClick the social buttons to share this story with colleagues and friendsThe opinions expressed here are the author39s views and do not necessarily represent the views of MediaVillageorgMyersBizNet

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Wharton Neuro Rates TV High Over Digital in “Brain Sales”

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