The Evolution of Demography - Shelly Palmer

As it turns out fulltime haberdasher and parttime protodemographer John Graunt described London circa 1662 by meticulously analyzing every single death record by hand In his study Natural and Political Observations Made upon the Bills of Mortality Graunt concludes death by plague was de minimis however if you were under the age of 16 you had about a 1 in 3 chance of surviving to adulthood London in the 1640s was a tough townWhat would motivate such an endeavor Fear of the plague but I digress Graunt39s work was academically rigorous scientific for its day and an impressive demonstration of data munging and data mining From it we learned we could combine demography and mathematics to yield actionable results Importantly Graunt was not using the Bills of Mortality as a proxy for his audience he was collecting and mining data that quotwasquot his audienceThe similarities between Graunt39s work and modern demographics are striking We still deduce the composition of audience cohorts and we still make natural and political observations Thankfully we don39t need to rely on Bills of Mortality to make them What we do rely on is a seemingly overwhelming amount of data gathered from a consortia of the devices we use everydayWhat can we learn from the data we already have Can traditional demography be adapted to describe the world as we observe it Are there tools that could help us better understand consumer behavior What does it mean to sell an actual audience as opposed to selling a proxy for itMy friends at Time Warner Cable TWC took me through an indepth analysis of set top box data that allowed them to create a new way to segment customers They call them quotTV Tribesquot At first glance I thought this was simply marketing jargon But the combination of data demographics and mathematics got my undivided attentionAccording to TWC quotTV Tribes are informed by both content and context where they live what they watch and how they consume mediaquot This combination of factors improves upon analysis based solely on demographics and the subsequent data transcends Nielsen ratings by finding out if particular channels are watched in specific areas of the country at specific time periodsThe data has helped TWC identify dozens of distinct TV Tribes such asNews Whether it39s local or national news channels are the main story within this Tribe These consumers39 favorite channels are MSNBC CNN and Fox NewsKids ampamp Family Families with young children tend to have a strong bias toward kids39 programming and channels like Cartoon Network and Disney XDTailgaters Sports fans who live and breath all season long with their favorite teams Channels like ESPN and the NBC Sports Network are quotkingquot to this TribeTrue Stories This Tribe prefers channels like AampampE and WE TV which air documentaries and real history shows about the past present and futureFast ampamp Furious This Tribe is obsessed with action programming movies and fastpaced comedies on networks like Syfy AMC and SPIKE TVWithin each of these tribes though the data can be broken down even further Marketers can see for example that only 3 of the market in Cleveland is made up of the Fast ampamp Furious Tribe while that number grows to 54 in Los Angeles or 71 in NYC The data can also be broken down by income level giving marketers an even better idea of exactly whom they39re selling toquotI39m fascinated by the granularity and targeting capability that quotTV Tribesquot accomplishes using the quotblunt force instrumentquot we call television It makes me wonder about the quest to conquer big data defined here as every bit of information generated by everything Probabilistic data vs deterministic data is there a middle ground Someplace between to paraphrase Einstein quotcounting absolutely everything that can be counted and counting only what countsWhether it39s putting ad dollars to work or striving to deliver the most relevant content we are likely to need a humanunderstandable narrative and context to augment our nascent automated pattern matching and machine learning tools TV Tribes seem like a positive evolutionary step Graunt would have liked them amp8211 seriously amp8211 check out some of his writing he literally describes his version of quotTribesquot in the bookIf you39ve read this far and you know me you are undoubtedly wondering when I39m going to start talking up the value of online and ondemand video amp8211 how well it can be measured and how easily targetable it is All true But Just this week Nielsen announced that the average American still watched more than 141 hours of live television a monthamp8212more than four hours a day How much online video do they watch 11 hours a monthamp8212around 22 minutes a day While it is undeniable that live television viewing is trending down and streaming video viewing is trending up the best ROI will be a result of increasing the efficacy of the bigger number firstBy the way if you needed to do all five years of Graunt39s data wrangling munging and analysis today it would take you less time than you spent reading this article Importantly this would not make you a better demographer than John Graunt only a faster one See you at CESShelly Palmer is Managing Director Digital Media Group at Landmark VenturesShellyPalmer He is a trusted strategic advisor to the CSuite of leading digital media content broadcasting and technology firms and a key driver of market technology and strategic direction as well as acquisition strategies for his clients such as Unilever Travelers Astra Zeneca Ford GE Fox 21CF Meredith Viacom Condamp233 Nast Clear Channel and Verizonamp160Palmer is well known as Fox 5 New York39s onair tech expert and for his work on the Emmynominated television show Shelly Palmer Digital Living and the host of as his nationally syndicated daily radio report on United Stations Radio Networks He is the patented inventor of the underlying technology for Enhanced Television used by programs such as ABC39s Who Wants to Be a Millionaire and ESPN39s Monday Night Footballamp160An awardwinning composer producer writer and director Palmer has worked with hundreds of brands agencies broadcasters publishers and tech platforms on advertising and marketing campaigns such as Meow Mix Burger King and The City of Las Vegasamp160He is the author of Television Disrupted The Transition from Network to Networked TV 2nd Edition York House Press 2008 the seminal book about the technological economic and sociological forces that are changing everything Overcoming The Digital Divide How to use Social Media and Digital Tools to Reinvent Yourself and Your Career York House Press 2011 and Digital Wisdom Thought Leadership for a Connected World York House Press 2013 For more information visit shellypalmercomamp160amp160amp160amp160Read all Shelly39s MediaBizBloggers commentaries at Shelly Palmer ReportCheck us out on Facebook at MediaBizBloggerscomFollow our Twitter updates MediaBizBloggerThe opinions and points of view expressed in this commentary are exclusively the views of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of MediaBizBloggerscom management or associated bloggers MediaBizBloggers is an open thought leadership platform and readers may share their comments and opinions in response to all commentaries

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