The Dream of a Perfect Outcomes Optimization System

Of course Wharton Neuroscience beat us to the punch discovering that Synchrony is the EEG brain signature most predictive of incremental branding and sales effects They just figured that out in the past couple of years working with blue chip advertisers Iamp8217m of course thrilled that Wharton in the course of its uniquely large sample neuro study sponsored by FOX determined that the closest predictor of sales behind Synchrony is the RMT Resonance method which Howard Shimmel and I invented in 2017In 2005 I cofounded TRA the first company to link ad exposure to purchase on millions of households TRA started in TV and then with Comscore and Datalogix added digital as well We had alwayson matches with purchases for every UPC code product sold in US supermarkets auto registrations prescription drugs and first party data You could run an optimization against any target you wanted and once the campaign went on air you could track its sales results Mars found they could pull ads off quickly that were not selling and this lifted their ROAS 52 Many of the 77 CPG brand direct clients targeted Heavy Swing Purchasers heavy category buyers who bought your brand but not loyally because this lifted ROAS an average of 28At TRA I wanted us to be able to also measure branding metrics and we actually could do that through the TiVo subpanel within our footprint One reason I wanted to be able to measure branding metrics is to be able to see the gradual effects of advertising before the consummation of the incremental purchaseWhen MTA came along I really wanted to do MTA with branding as well as sales effects because that way you could see which impressions moved the needle rather than have to guess the value of the last impression before the incremental purchase versus each of the other impressions I had already sold TRA to TiVo by 2014 but was still consulting for what was at the time called TiVo Research when I created this slideThis wasnamp8217t perfect yet because we had to first calculate the overall ROAS of each media subtype by multiple regression analysis and then give every impression that average degree of impact when in reality each impression has a varying degree of impact around that average One day MTA will be really powerful when we can get panelists to wear EEG headbands and then we can see how the individual consumer is nudged step by step along the journey to becoming a new customerAt TRA we also knew that we werenamp8217t getting perfect data because we only had household level data not people data and only from subscribers to specific MVPDs plus TiVo owners One client did a correlation between TRA and Nielsen Women 2554 ratings for TRA it was the households in which a woman 2554 lived and found it to be 9533 amp8211 but when looked at by individual programs there were substantial differencesNow ten years later with the television landscape so utterly different from ever before Nielsen has quantified how far off the TV ad exposure data can be without the bias correction of the national probability panel and itamp8217s a lot amp8211 so that measuring ROAS based on those numbers would be thrown off quite a bitAt TRA we were quite proud of the 34 million household sample we had and of using two ID graphs for greater accuracy of matching impressions and purchases How far has the industry progressed beyond our pioneer work Nielsen now has its 45000 home panel plus 75000000 devices plus 135000000 people in its national respondentlevel database It now has in the US full census deterministic advanced audiences covering CPG purchasers for over 100000000 individual people 100 coverage of auto registration data 80 of credit card transactions and uses nearly ten of the best ID graphs together The measurement industry has come so very far in ten short yearsAnd thereamp8217s still great work to be donePosted at MediaVillage through the Thought Leadership selfpublishing platformClick the social buttons to share this story with colleagues and friendsThe opinions expressed here are the author39s views and do not necessarily represent the views of MediaVillageorgMyersBizNet

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The Dream of a Perfect Outcomes Optimization System

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Bill Harvey

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