Political Dollars: Told Ya So….

At the time, for many linear TV inventory providers the political dollars were trickling in at a slower pace than at that point in 2020. Some industry participants may even have feared that total 2024 political might not meet early expectations and might not even match, much less surpass, 2020.

I’m reminded now of the Dickens line, “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.” Our stance in May was that inventory holders should not get complacent – or depressed – but rather should brace for a heavier-than-ever Q4, and all the inventory-management challenges that could pose.

In other words, to borrow from Dickens – and, depending on your vantage point – we cautioned folks to prepare for the best…. or the worst.

Well, as we could have predicted, the political dollars indeed have flowed in. Early last month, AdImpact reported August saw political ad spending hit $1.04 billion -- nearly double the $523 million spent during July. And AdImpact calculated total ad spending during the full 2024 election cycle at Aug. 30 totaling $4.6 billion – up 28% from $3.6 billion spent by that point during the 2020 cycle.

And this of course did not factor in bookings already secured for September through Election Day. And on that point, at the end of September AdImpact announced that the pace had accelerated further – with the 2024 election cycle having pulled in nearly $6.2 billion since it began in mid-2023 – up 32% from $4.7 billion in spending at that point in the election cycle four years ago!

As a company that helps steer ad bookings to clients, we of course consider these the best of times. But if you’re a traffic manager in the trenches at an MVPD or local TV broadcaster in a battleground state, your enthusiasm may be tinged with the mild panic of juggling the influx of political orders with the needs of your core ad clients.

It’s a nicer problem to have than the alternative, of course, but it nevertheless poses a problem.

We’ve seen the growing phenomenon of core local TV advertisers such as auto dealers parking (if you’ll forgive the metaphor) their dollars on the sidelines and waiting until after Election Day before attempting to book any orders. We’re hearing that some linear TV inventory providers in key battleground markets are, in some weeks, seeing as much as 80% of their revenue coming via the political category.

As I write this, we’ve already booked double the January-to-September political dollars in the battleground state of Pennsylvania that we booked during that period in 2020, and are comfortably projecting a doubling of 2020 spending on our footprint in that state when all is said and done post-Election Day. CTV orders that we handle are coming on strong, to be sure, but the lion’s share continues to flow to the linear platforms.

We’ve seen both the Harris and Trump campaigns and PACs spending heavily as well in Georgia, North Carolina and Wisconsin. In terms of programming, at Viamedia we’ve seen lots of ad orders around the debates and around football games – increasingly a great place to reach not just male voters but virtually all demos.

And yet the spending is not restricted to presidential battleground states like Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada and Arizona. Don’t forget the large number of highly competitive “down-ballot” races for the House, Senate and statehouses. We’re seeing record levels of spending in “red” states like Ohio and Texas, not just the seven aforementioned “purple” states.

So, it’s admittedly a little late in the cycle for me to be warning readers anew about the inventory-management challenges of a political year. But I will take this opportunity to make a prediction: For all the doom & gloom naysaying about the outlook for linear TV advertising, I will put my money on 2026 being another record for Mid-Term election spending… and for 2028 to mark another record for presidential cycle ad spending.

Posted at MediaVillage through the Thought Leadership self-publishing platform.

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