Marketing in 2030

In addition highquality calibration panels will use these Internet Protocol census data to fill in data from panel refusers so as to conquer nonresponse bias and make these panels truly a truth set to check on the census big data Panels will also add coviewingamp160and data on TV usage in the remaining small scattering of rabbit ear homes These future panels will use passive peoplemeters to replace today39s pushbutton metersAdvertisers will benefit from the extreme accuracy of these impression measures In addition there will be two types of predictive attentional measures that will distinguish quality impressions when making buysamp160a media side variables that impede attention size of ad number of ads on page or in pod etc and b measures of the degree of resonance between b1 the ad and the context and b2 the ad and the audience memberThese predictive quality impressions data will be checked against actual attention and outcomes and by 2030 the predictions and the actuals will tend to be closely aligned A company I cofounded with Bill McKenna RMT is already achieving the alignment of predicted vs actual quality impressions using these two resonance methods b1 and b2Attention data itself will tend to come from specialized alldevice panels in which viewers are incented to allow the device cameras to be turned on so as to measure when eyes are on screenamp160and the timing of facial emotional signals The most advanced buyside and sellside optimizers will take these additional signals into account by 2030Other specialized panels will develop neuro measures also reportable second by second so that there will be understanding of longterm memory formation in relation to impressions of different quality levelsBy 2030 the buyside will be able to quantify the value of branding vs incremental shortterm salesamp160for each of their own brands These calculations will tend to be based on Consumer Lifetime Value CLV or LV which will automatically gauge the value of gaining one new customer These values will be tracked and found to change over time For example branding will be more valuable than shortterm sales while a brand is growing and shortterm sales will become more important the larger the brand39s base is Until the brand reinvents itself and starts a new S CurveEach CMO will establish their own theory of mind and heart for their own brands which will be operationalized within brand optimizers operating at tactical silo levels media types outputting media briefs to the AOR media agency of recordThus marketing in 2030 will be datadriven from end to end combining intuition with science and adjusting based on fasttracked realworld responses at each funnel level Most brands will have adopted the basic lens of the direct marketer with a far stronger mental infrastructure regarding sales loyalty over time and interpersonal influence than has existed in most of DR to dateThese visions of 8 years from now were stimulated by some cogent responses I received to my post regarding Quality ImpressionsMax Kalehoff Vice President of Marketing atamp160RealEyes a leading supplier of attention measurement writesquotIf one were to consider media attentiveness only an extension of viewability the concept of media adoption for currency is simple if not simplistic and will gather faster traction That is ironic considering that creative is the most powerful lever for a brand to influence attention and subsequent outcomesquotHowever I still believe the advertisers and media companies who embrace the holistic approach will achieve advantage because 39Attentiveness reflects the resonance between the ad and the context and between the ad and the audience member39amp160as you describe Advertisers can achieve better outcomes with this focus but so too can media companies amp160at least the ones who really care about advertiser performance because advertiser performance is usually built into their auction model in the first placequotMarc Guldimann founder and CEO of Adelaide which is already providing the media side variables predictive attention data referred to above as quottype aquotamp160writesquotThe 600B media market is in dire need of a shared understanding of quality Deploying attention metrics as a media quality measure is a critical first step towards leveling the playing field and introducing more liquidity and efficiency to the market From there we can hold the quality of media constant and draw insights about creative and its relevance to audiencesquotHoward Shimmel President of Janus Strategy ampamp Insights LLC and a strategic advisor to Adelaide as am I writesquotI think it39s important to highlight the fact that optimizing advertising engagement is a shared responsibility for both the advertiser and the media company The advertiser brings a healthy brand a great brand promise and great creative The media company brings a highly engaged audienceamp160has effectively optimized the structure of their commercial inventory and has effectively managed the ads within the break where the brand39s spot runs The combination of the two drives resultsquotThe siloing of creative and media agencies was perhaps the worst thing that ever happened so far in marketing including its effect on agencies becoming subject to the procurement modelFor the same underlying reason amp160the fact that creative and media are a combined experience for the audience amp160the most promising signs for the future of marketing cost effectiveness are today39s focus on attention and other context and interactioncovariance causality effects among the creative media and audience variablesHolistic beats silosClick the social buttons to share this story with colleagues and friendsThe opinions expressed here are the author39s views and do not necessarily represent the views of MediaVillagecomMyersBizNet

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Marketing in 2030

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Bill Harvey

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