Local Broadcast Ad Revenue Forecast 2017

It is true that TV is currently a top influencer, but how long will it maintain its dominance and ad revenue?  Marci Ryvicker, Managing Director Wells Fargo, titled her presentation "Broadcast Looks Healthy!" “Despite what the stocks may be telling us,” she noted.

“Retransmission consent is a growing percentage of revenue and share of EBITA,” Ryvicker explained. “Broadcast is a must see, must have asset and a key asset in this ecosystem. Broadcast will be in any successful skinny bundle. If TV doesn't matter, why is Trump raising $140 million and spending most of it on TV?”

But looking forward, she said that “Broadcast ratings are not expected to be very strong. Stations, though, are maintaining their share. The outlier is digital, which is taking share from print, but broadcast under performed in the stock market.”

Jack Myers, Media Ecologist, MyersBizNet, offered his forecasts for 2016 and 2017. Currently, 2016, with the Olympics and charged Presidential election, is proving to be a healthy market for TV. “More advertisers are looking at their digital expenditures,” Myers stated, adding, “In the Upfront, CPG moved back to TV from digital. It was a surprisingly strong Upfront this year with CPM growth between 7% and 12% -- and first quarter scatter is strong so far.” Data is playing a major role, along with attribution. “There have been major shifts with data analytics at the core of decision making,” he continued. “We are incorporating more analytics into the process.”

Myers anticipates that local/national spot broadcast TV will increase +12.5% in 2016 with legacy media garnering +11.8% and digital +25%. But the picture changes in 2017 as the total percent change declines -12.4% driven by a legacy media loss of -13.5% and a digital gain of +5%.

The trends in consumer usage portend a more difficult sales environment for traditional television in the longer term, but television executives are exploiting digital opportunities at both the local and national level. As Myers stated, “There can be a bigger upside and better use of digital inventory in local markets. Local TV and radio have extraordinary opportunities to tap into local shopper dollars -- and mobile holds significant upside potential.”

The opinions and points of view expressed in this commentary are exclusively the views of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of MediaVillage.com/MyersBizNet, Inc. management or associated bloggers.