How to Maneuver the 2024 Political Campaign Spend Game, Locality Style

Right off the bat, expect many candidates running for national, state, and local government positions, along with supporters of legislative initiatives up for voter approval or disapproval across the nation, to dramatically increase their spending for messages on channels and bundles distributed through smart TV products. Those channels and bundles attracted $1 billion spent by individual candidates or political action committees last year, constituting 12 percent of the total TV political budget. According to Mica Hansen, Locality's Executive Vice President and Director of Political Sales, that's the first time smart TV-directed spending in this category crossed the billion-dollar threshold, while edging out the overall political ad take among web, mobile, and other digital avenues.

"Connected TV not only took the political world by storm but also took some spend from digital," Hansen added. "I expect smart TV to grow and for 2024 to clearly take third place in overall spending behind cable and linear broadcast TV." More than half of political ad expenditures last year, amounting to $4.7 billion, went to broadcast network and station buys, while cable networks and systems racked up $1.8 billion, making up 20 percent of ad spending.

A substantial portion of commercial time allocated for the 2024 Presidential campaign will run in five-to-eight states considered crucial in determining the outcome, such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Wisconsin. The majority of that spending will take place from next May to November, after the Democratic and Republican primary season wraps up. The biggest surge of political ads TV viewers will witness will occur in the final six weeks of campaigning, covering October and early November 2024.

"Third-party groups such as 'No Labels' are expected to be active as well," Hansen projected. "There are a lot of people out there that don't like either one of the current front-running Republican and Democratic candidates."

For the upcoming congressional races, Locality expects increased ad spending for a number of Senate contests in states like Ohio and Pennsylvania. Campaigns involving House of Representatives seats are expected to maintain or slightly increase their TV budgets from 2020. Due to a fewer number of races for state governors, look for TV spending in that category to drop in 2024, Hansen said.

"Look for more ad spending on ballot initiatives," she continued. "They will drive national spending. No doubt about it. Some states will raise the bar on what proposed initiatives get on the ballot."

At one point, Hansen offered a list of issues that will be top of mind when voters assemble at polling sites next November. Among them: inflation and financial uncertainty, racial equity, education, and abortion.

For a wrap-up, Hansen offered a number of best practices Locality's TV clients should expect from officials making 2024 political campaign ad strategy:

• Early booking of TV ads
• More emphasis on Monday-through-Friday news programming, less on weekend newscasts
• Increased spending on non-primetime dayparts and run-of-schedule options
• Bigger focus on smart TV set/device-distributed channels and multichannel bundles, as well as multicast channels programmed by or distributed through local TV stations
• More campaigns reaching out to younger viewers (18-30)

"We're here to be a resource for you and your clients," declared Nancy Patrickus, Locality's Regional Director Of Sales. "We're here to ensure your message is heard."

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The opinions expressed here are the author's views and do not necessarily represent the views of MediaVillage.org/MyersBizNet.