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Overview and Market Realities
Legacy television media companies are at a critical juncture between 2025 and 2030, facing existential challenges from shifts in consumer behavior, technological disruption, and intensifying competition from new players. Traditional TV networks, built on advertising revenue and linear programming, are under increasing pressure as audience migration accelerates to digital platforms and as Amazon, Apple, Google, Netflix, Apple, Microsoft, and META continue to invest heavily in video content, ad technology, and AI-powered media experiences.
Trends in Ratings-Based Currencies vs. Emerging Measurement Sources
Historically, traditional TV advertising was built on Nielsen ratings-based currency that provided a standardized, albeit flawed, measure of viewership. However, legacy measurement systems will continue to be inadequate in capturing fragmented audiences across linear TV, connected TV (CTV), digital, commerce, and social platforms.
Emerging Measurement Sources:
New entrants like iSpot, VideoAmp, and Comscore are gaining traction, providing multi-platform measurement that integrates linear TV, streaming, and social media. However, these emerging currencies face hurdles, including the complexity of cross-platform measurement, adoption inertia among advertisers, and data privacy regulations (especially in the EU).
Adoption Challenges:
While some large advertisers are transitioning to multi-currency measurement models, full adoption will be gradual. Industry-wide reliance on legacy systems persists due to familiarity and operational inertia. It is expected that hybrid measurement models (ratings-based combined with advanced attribution tools) will dominate the industry until 2030, as agencies and brands slowly adapt to new technologies.
Rise of Retail/Commerce Media and Its Impact
Retail media networks (e.g., Amazon, Walmart, and Instacart) are formidable competitors to legacy TV ad models. Retail media offers precise targeting through first-party customer data, outperforming traditional TV in driving measurable outcomes.
Projected Growth of Retail Media:
The retail media sector is expected to surpass $100 billion globally in 2026, growing at double-digit rates annually. This growth threatens ad budgets traditionally allocated to TV, as advertisers increasingly prioritize precision targeting and performance-based advertising.
- Shift in Budgets:
Legacy TV companies must respond by integrating shoppable ads and e-commerce opportunities within video content, a trend exemplified by NBCUniversal’s partnerships with retail platforms and Disney’s approach to “clean rooms” for data integration. However, those that cannot evolve will continue to lose ad dollars to retail media networks.
Competitive Pressure from Big Tech Investments in Video and AI
Companies like Amazon, Apple, Netflix, Google, and META are making unprecedented investments in video content, ad technology, and AI capabilities. These companies leverage deep pockets to produce premium content and sophisticated data-driven ad platforms.
Big Tech’s Video Investments:
- Amazon: Expands Prime Video and CTV offerings, monetizing content through ad-supported streaming.
- Apple: Increases investment in Apple TV+ content, integrating its ad capabilities through iOS and connected devices.
- Netflix: Introduced ad-supported tiers to diversify revenue beyond subscriptions, drawing advertisers away from TV networks.
- META and Google: Use video and short-form content to dominate social media advertising, leveraging AI to optimize ad delivery and personalization.
Impact on Legacy Players:
Legacy TV companies struggle to compete with Big Tech’s resources, especially in the rapidly evolving AI landscape. AI-powered personalization and predictive analytics enable Big Tech to deliver content and ads with unparalleled precision, putting traditional broadcasters at a disadvantage.
AI and Machine Intelligence: A New Battleground
The rise of AI and machine intelligence will further disrupt legacy television companies. AI is transforming content production, personalization, and audience measurement, but only companies with deep investments in technology can capitalize on these advances.
AI’s Transformative Potential:
- AI can automate production workflows, optimize ad targeting, and enhance recommendation engines.
- New immersive media experiences, including virtual reality (VR) and augmented reality (AR), will rely heavily on AI-powered personalization.
Challenges for Legacy Companies:
Many legacy TV companies lack the financial resources to invest meaningfully in AI, making them vulnerable to disruption by well-funded tech giants. Companies that fail to integrate AI effectively risk falling behind in content delivery and advertising competitiveness.
Global Impact: United States, EU, and Emerging Regions
United States:
U.S. legacy media companies, including Disney, Warner Bros. Discovery, and Comcast NBCU, will face heightened competition from tech firms and retail media networks. Companies able to innovate with streaming services, AI, and advanced measurement tools will remain competitive. Others, burdened by legacy infrastructure, will struggle to retain market share.
European Union (EU):
The EU market presents unique challenges, including stricter privacy laws (GDPR) and regulatory oversight. Media companies in Europe, like RTL and Vivendi, must adapt to these regulatory pressures while competing with U.S. tech giants expanding their video offerings in Europe.
Emerging Markets:
In regions like Latin America, Africa, and Asia, the growth of mobile-first video platforms and social media will outpace traditional TV. Emerging economies will adopt streaming services at scale, with companies like Netflix, Amazon, and local telecom providers leading the charge. Legacy TV companies that do not adapt will quickly lose relevance in these regions.
A Path Forward for Legacy TV Companies
The economic future of legacy television companies between 2025 and 2030 will depend on their ability to:
- Adopt hybrid measurement models that align with new multi-platform viewing habits.
- Partner with retail media networks to integrate commerce-driven advertising within video content.
- Invest in AI and new media technologies to remain competitive in a rapidly evolving landscape.
- Collaborate with regulators and adapt to regional markets, especially in the EU and emerging economies.
Legacy TV companies that can innovate, diversify revenue streams, and embrace new measurement models will survive the transformation. However, those unable to make meaningful investments in technology and partnerships will face continued erosion of audience and ad revenue, becoming increasingly irrelevant in the global media ecosystem.