ARF Announces a Scientific Solution to Complete Advertising ROI Measurement

There have been in my view two classes of ROI modeling methods one typified by TRA NC Solutions and especially 605 where there is vast data at the household level and a high degree of representativeness and the less expensive category of MMMMTA The massive passive household deterministic data make for the highest confidence levels amp8211 but none of these observational methods delivers certainty none delivers causality So better companies have always proposed that RCTs be used to confirm results before making major media or creative decisions 605 and NC Solutions have been doing RCTs for yearsThis is not to be dismissive of attribution In the main all ROI practitioners have raised the understanding of the sales effects of brand advertising from approximately zero when I joined the business to maybe 50 today We are all in their debtYet Advertiser Perceptions reports that only one in nine advertisers is extremely satisfied with ad measurement and ROI modeling is the ad measurement type most criticizedWe all know the reasons why includingquotBlack boxes which disagree with one another so who knows which is rightquotquotAttribution says I made the company a lot of money but the company somehow can39t seem to find a trace of it in their coffersquotquotWere these incremental sales or are media being credited with some sales that would have been made anywayquot Former Chief Data Officer at Havas Nathan Woodman writes in ADWEEK that some media purposely target known buyers so as to appear to have contributed incremental sales in full knowledge of the fact that those sales come from existing brand buyersLacking confidence in ROI findings leads marketers to make small shifts even when they feel larger shifts are neededARF saw this as a priority problem needing real solution and that solution is the use of scientific experimental design amp8211 Random Control Trials RCT across platforms initially TV and digital later across all marketing and media stimuli By setting up an experiment incrementality is intrinsic there is only one variable different between the test and control group and so causality can be determined with certaintyRCT21 is the name of the ARF initiative which brings together 605 Central Control and Bill Harvey Consulting along with the ARF itself and participating advertisers to demonstrate the Proof Of Concept The aim one more tool in the marketer39s toolkit when certainty is desired or essential and a quottruth setquot that attribution researchers can use to calibrate their findings making all of attribution more accurate and actionableThe press release is hereThere will also be a special ARF webinar open to Members and nonMembers on July 23 at 3PM Eastern Time in which Andy Fisher Head of Merkury for Advanced TV and Chief Analytics Officer at Dentsu Merkle and Vadim Tsemekhman Director of Product Management at Walmart Labs join with RCT21 team members in a panel discussion delving more deeply into RCT21 For free registration Click hereAs we traverse COVID19 into the new world we now have bedrock ground truth to rely upon Whenever we need certainty we can have it The 2 trillion in global marketing dollars needs it today more than ever before That number includes eCom martech and data user experience promotion advertising sponsorship and brand content Thanks to Chick Foxgrover at 4As for this numberWhat Makes Science WorkDespite the current disregard for science in high places we all must give science its due it is the greatest thing the human race has created even in light of the aweinspiring art and all of our other achievementsScience knows its Creator whether you believe that Creator to be random chance or something else that is an amazing accomplishment even though as Arthur C Clarke and others have pointed out what we know is a trivial fraction of the totality of what is to be known That just means it will take time but does not denigrate the victory of having a process that delves into knowledge of who oneself is and where did I come from and what is this thing we are all a part ofSo how did science get there What did it do to become so appropriately exalted as to supersede religion although one39s feelings bring one back to spiritualityJust two things Very difficult things especially when you consider the apish creatures we were when we first started to think this wayInner observant articulation of hypotheses derived from outer observant inductive reasoningTesting of hypotheses in experiments where everything is the same for two treatments except the one difference that would confirm with utter certainty that the cause of any difference in outcome was the one preidentified suspected causeThose are the two quintessentially brilliant tricks of scienceIn marketing the first trick is used all the time by every practitionerToday the second trick is used by the walled gardens for their own media is desperately needed by the marketers to be able to use via disinterested and qualified third parties across all media and ultimately across all marketing stimuli but is only being used regularly by a very small percentage of marketers amp8211 typically DTCs and it is part and parcel of their meteoric riseThat is a longwinded way of saying that what ARF is doing with RCT21 is of major significance and could be a watershed momentClick the social buttons to share this story with colleagues and friendsThe opinions expressed here are the author39s views and do not necessarily represent the views of MediaVillagecomMyersBizNet

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ARF Announces a Scientific Solution to Complete Advertising ROI Measurement

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Bill Harvey

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