A Futurist's Warning: Buckle Up for the Most Disruptive Decade Ever

David Houle a former media and entertainment executive whose work has won Emmys a Peabody and an Academy Award nomination doesn39t lack courage or imagination in quotThe 2020samp8212The Most Disruptive Decade in Historyquot his latest futurist forecast The first in a ninebook series the short volume asserts the decade will epitomize what Houle calls quotthe shift agequot Its disruptiveness will come from change so pervasive it presages evolutionary consequences for humankind not just for how we think and behave in the next ten yearsHoule uses telescoped timelines to help define the shift age In a brief tour through 150000 years of human history a 50year lifespan serves as his metric From steam engines to telephones it took five lifetimes to create the wonders of the industrial age From the mainframe computer to the smart phone The information age took just one His examples epitomize the accelerating change in how we communicate link to the world and experience technology In the 2020s Houle argues it will revolutionize our lives in less than a generationWhile sprinting from huntergathers to video gamers in a few dozen pages represents a view of the Anthropocene at warp speed Houle nonetheless successfully tees up his main point An increasingly complex and technologydriven global society not only is changing politics the economy and social interaction but also what it means to be human That39s why in the 2020s he asserts breakthroughs in neuroscience and artificial intelligence the impact of climate change and new forms of capitalism and democracy will propel our quotevolutionary leapquotquotThe 2020squot is entertaining as well as informative And the work is a valuable tease enticing readers to look further at fields such as neuroscience where experts often spent their time explaining breakthroughs in technospeak rather than describing in layman39s terms their longrun implications if they pan out In doing just that Houle casts a wide net His future volumes hopefully will drill down on subjects like the global economy and the marriage of mind and technology to back up his prognosis for big changes aheadquotThe 2020squot doesn39t stint on bold prescriptions about how to handle the decade39s disruptions That of course is part of a futurist39s role But ringing the fire bell is one thing driving the fire truck to the right address another presenting the evidence that supports calls to action is as important as making the argument about what to do Ask any journeyman intelligence analyst Separating the facts from analysis for decisionmakers is one of the job39s imperatives It will be important for forthcoming volumes to do the sameTake climate change quotMoving to a Finite Earth Economyquot Houle39s valuable book on the subject published last year establishes his knowledge In cataloguing the 2020s39 disruptions he rightly singles out the looming crisis and what to do about it quotThe 2020squot he writes quotis the last decade we have to alter our course relative to the planetary damage humanity has causedquot His prescription given our continuing halfsteps and mumbling our fate is only reversible via global cooperation that includes hitting targets lightyears beyond any accomplished to dateFair enough But as quotThe 2020squot also lays out global warming isn39t the only fire on the block In fact Houle39s environmental prescriptions are followed by equally adamant assertions that the same global leaders must undertake unprecedented reforms in governing systems and the capitalist model Climate catastrophe or not who could blame them if they threw up their hands and said quotNow whatquot In short if government leaders are going to respond to Houle39s alarms they39ll need to sort their priorities as well as their options based on the factsHoule doubtless would acknowledge that his own prescriptions are traveling on the new decade39s disruptive road For example quotThe 2020squot calls for reform to create a 21st Century technologyinfused version of democracy Rather than elected representatives Houle proposes that citizens vote directly on the issues from welfare roads and taxes to national defense If questions arise apolitical experts would tutor them on the details The idea reminiscent of various utopian theories 200 years would have politicians and parties disappearSet aside the fact the Constitution was designed to avoid that format the performance of social media arguably our best example of technologyenabled citizen engagement so far should give pause In addition to its vulnerability to domestic political manipulation the last few years is proof our adversaries have made it a playground to subvert the democratic process Add the polls showing many Americans are confused if not ignorant about facts as well as how their government works Whatever direct democracy39s virtues the last decade39s disruptions don39t paint a pretty picture of national decisions made from the living room couchquotThe 2020samp8212the Most Disruptive Decade in Historyquot offers a synthesis of perils and promise It39s a conversationstarter Houle also encourages readers to look ahead by abandoning what he styles as quotlegacy thinkingquotamp8212that is using history to judge what may happen next It39s a provocative idea but it39s also a big ask After all from historians to philosophers insight from experience shapes our understanding whatever we label it Consider the Biblical prophets the futurists39 forebearers Legacy thinkers or not they39ve maintained quite a followingTo its credit Houle39s futurism doesn39t only look down the road On climate change for example he offers specific proposals to deal with today39s challenges as well as the disruptions likely in the decade ahead And just like the prophets Houle delivers his message loud and clear It39s not unlike the prophets39 warnings shorthanded on another church39s billboardDon39t make me come down thereGodPhoto courtesy of Kent HarringtonClick the social buttons to share this story with colleagues and friendsThe opinions expressed here are the author39s views and do not necessarily represent the views of MediaVillagecomMyersBizNet

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A Futurist's Warning: Buckle Up for the Most Disruptive Decade Ever

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Kent M. Harrington

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A Futurist's Warning: Buckle Up for the Most Disruptive Decade Ever

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