Simulmedia's Dave Morgan on Predicting the Future of Media

Charlene Weisler amp160What is going on now in the media ecosystemDave Morgan amp160Most people when they look at changing trends and forecasts in the media industry look at what has changed in the most recent past amp160They look at the trend lines in the longerterm past to see how fast they impact things and then they project that forward amp160What I think is happening now that will make that approach difficult is that we are seeing really big structural changes in how people are consuming media how advertising is being bought and sold and how marketers are going to deploy the money for the acquisition of customers amp160It is going to be very unpredictable for a lot of people amp160The truisms we have heard for decades that no subsequent new media destroys the old media will go away amp160Yes we will see less classic radio and more digital audio amp160We will see less newspapers and more digital news amp160But we will see what we always thought were longterm sustainable advertising channels truly disappear because of their inability to be economically supportedWeisler amp160So in your experience has there been any other point in time where you have seen such dramatic transformation in the industryMorgan amp160No amp160I think that the big macro issues have been seen for a long time amp160Certainly if you go back 30 years Jack Myers was predicting these things and he was probably one of the only people who was doing so amp160The tension between above the line and below the line in spend what happens when marketers take greater control amp8230 the only thing that I think is close is what we saw with search and online classifieds amp160I will use Craigslist as an example what search did to the Yellow Pages and the classified business that is probably comparable amp160Weisler amp160The result of that has been a disintermediation of that businessMorgan amp160The newspaper pillars have been taken out amp160The Yellow Pages businesses are a fraction of what they used to be not even 5 I expect So the vertical commerce classified businesses that have survived are interesting and pretty powerful but they are not nearly the profit drivers that we used to have in print classifieds amp160But the good thing is without question the consumer the user the potential buyer the seeker of commercial information has a dramatically more robust experience simpler and faster than ever before amp160So the people who had to wait for the classified ads to show up to see what car they could buy or the person trying to dig through the Yellow Pages to try to find a restaurant to go to from books that were published 18 months before they wonWeisler amp160Concerning the future of search I have been hearing a lot about voice searchMorganamp160 I39m a believer in voice search amp160I think the user experience of typing text either on a PC or a phone is not nearly as easy and simple and intuitive as talking amp160So I do believe that voice search and voice commercial search would be pretty powerful amp160This obviously tells you there is a chance to have a significant shift in the search business over time away from Google which is so dominant today to something towards a company like Amazon which is a leading contender at the momentWeisler amp160Television is still working with proxy measurements when everything is about targetability amp160The rate of change appears to be lagging amp160Do you see that to be true Morgan amp160This is probably the area that will be the most suddenly hit when it hits amp160For a number of reasons TV advertising has been much more resilient than a lot of people expected because it works amp160As inefficiently bought sold and measured as it is today nothing beats TV in doing what TV does well amp160Nothing reaches more people faster amp160Nothing delivers more perperson delivery impact amp160Nothing is fundamentally cheaperNational cable CPMs per 30 second spots were 7 to 9 while premium digital a six second preroll CPM is 40 to 50 amp160This is because most of the buyers in the digital world have come from direct response so they value things as what they are worth to them amp160Because the prices are low on TV there are more buyers than sellers amp160So if you have a lineup of buyers who are willing to purchase your inventory based on what you valuated it on a business model you don39t have to change things a whole lotBut just like the Hemingway quote from the Sun Also Rises when Mike was asked how he went bankrupt andamp160he replies quotTwo ways gradually then suddenlyquot I think that is the change coming to the TV industry amp160Which is why every TV company is for sale todayClick the social buttons above or below to share this story with your friends and colleaguesThe opinions and points of view expressed in this content are exclusively the views of the author andor subjects and do not necessarily represent the views of MediaVillagecomMyersBizNet Inc management or associated writersamp160

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Simulmedia's Dave Morgan on Predicting the Future of Media

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Charlene Weisler

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Simulmedia's Dave Morgan on Predicting the Future of Media

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Charlene Weisler

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