2Q17 Ad Market +5% Despite Mass Marketer Weakness -- Pivotal Research

2017 Growth on Track for 45 With virtually all US media owners reporting 2Q17 results we estimate domestic advertising probably grew around 5 roughly in line with growth from every quarter since 4Q15 on a normalized expolitical and incremental Olympics basis This rate of growth combined with a similar first quarter suggests that the year is likely to end up between 4 and 5 above 2016amp8217s normalized levelsIndustry growth is more notable considering the widely reported weaknesses at many of the worldamp8217s largest mass marketers especially including fast moving consumer goods manufacturers In fact we estimate that the 30 companies within the Ad Age 200 who provide quarterly data and whose businesses are not endemic to the web posted median growth rates for advertising or marketing spending of only 14 during the quarter By contrast a group of ten large web endemics we track including Google Amazon Expedia IAC etc increased their spending on sales and marketing by a median growth rate of 24 during the quarter We think itamp8217s safe to say that this implies web endemics increased spending on advertising at a significantly faster pace than did other types of advertisers and that spending by these companies is likely driving the 20 growth rates experienced by digitallyoriented media owners at the present time The tepid growth rates observed by socalled amp8220traditionalamp8221 marketers coincides with what we estimate to be a 1 decline for national TV similar rates for radio and outdoor and double digit declines for most printbased mediaA New Era for Digital We Donamp8217t Think so There are many industry observers who believe that digital advertising has enabled a new era whereby old models for predicting growth wonamp8217t work so long as media owners such as Facebook and Google are able to tap into marketing budgets rather than mere advertising budgets sustaining elevated growth rates for many years to come By contrast the data we have analyzed for media spending growth rates from 1981 to the present indicates a relatively stable relationship between the growth of key economic variables Personal Consumption Expenditures and Industrial Production in particular and the growth of media ownersamp8217 normalized advertising revenues Occasionally amp8211 as in 2016 amp8211 we can see a year where an ad market growth rate is unusually strong at more than 2 standard deviations away from where our model predicts growth should be However even if advertising in 2017 ends up growing by 5 it would only be 1 standard deviation away from what our model predicts This is hardly a meaningful difference and arguably reinforces that the relationship between economic growth and media ownersamp8217 advertising revenues is essentially unchanged Where change is occurring is within the composition of the growth in the base of paid advertising amp8211 more from web endemics less from traditional marketersModel Suggests Digital Must Eventually Plateau This interpretation is important in context of assessing the degree to which digital advertising in general can or cannot continue to grow as they have in recent years Specifically if within the United States digital advertising continued to grow over the next six years at the same pace at which it did during 2016 22 and total advertising grew by 3 each year over the same time a pace of growth that would match 45 nominal PCE growth and 26 IP growth as is forecast for 2018 at present by the Philadelphia Federal Reserveamp8217s Survey of Professional Forecasters digital advertising would essentially equal all advertising This seems plainly unrealistic as other media most likely declines gradually and will not simply evaporate More realistically digital advertising growth must inevitably slow down gradually decelerating towards low double digits over the next couple of years and approaching single digit growth rates at some point thereafter This has significant implications for Facebook and Google in particular given their dominance of digital advertising as it implies a significant degree of deceleration will occur for digital media over the next several years Beyond international sources of growth from markets which are less saturated this will present significant headwinds for the two companies unless they invest more aggressively into margineroding traditional media marketing technology or other adjacent fieldsFULL REPORT INCLUDING RISKS AND DISCLOSURES CAN BE FOUND HERE Ad Forecast 81517pdfamp160

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2Q17 Ad Market +5% Despite Mass Marketer Weakness -- Pivotal Research

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Brian Wieser

"About That with Carl Mayer": Involved Media Connected Audience Fall 2024 Report (Episode 5) - By Carl Mayer

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2Q17 Ad Market +5% Despite Mass Marketer Weakness -- Pivotal Research

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